employee
Moscow, Russian Federation
Orel, Russian Federation
Moscow, Russian Federation
BISAC MAT029000 Probability & Statistics / General
A general view of the model of risk assessment in the natural-technogenic system (NTS), considering the effects of natural and technogenic factors, is considered. The general solution of the system of differential equations describing the model is found. Two examples of the application of the model for the case of functionally similar natural and technogenic impacts are analyzed: (i) linear effects resulting in catastrophic seismic events; (ii) parabolic impacts that lead to creep, karst-deformation, subsidence and landslide processes. In addition, two new models of the dynamics of risks arising in a TCP under the influence of dangerous natural and technogenic factors are described. The presented models differ from each other in the types of effects: in the first model, they consider jointly parabolic (reflecting threats, the intensity of which gradually decreases with distance from the epicenter) and linear types of effects (reflecting suddenly arising threats), in the second model, the analysis of such types of impacts as parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats whose intensity decreases sharply over time) is carried out. It is concluded that, on the basis of the considered models, it is possible to accurately describe almost any type of combined natural and technological impact and also make a special “atlas” of complex effects on the NTS for preventive “playing” of various situations and developing effective counteraction to emerging dangers from the departments of the Ministry of Emergencies and other structures.
modeling, differential equations, assessment, natural and technological risks, danger, counteraction
1. Shoigu S. K., Vorobyov Yu. L., Vladimirov V. A. Catastrophes and the state. - Moscow: Energoatomizdat, 1997. - 160 p.
2. Minaev V. A., Faddeev A. O. Safety and recreation: system view on the problem of risks / Proceedings of the II International scientific and practical conference "Tourism and recreation: fundamental and applied researches". April 20, 2007. - Moscow: Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2008. - Pp. 329-334.
3. Minaev V. A., Faddeev A. O. Methods of assessment of geo-ecological risk and geo-ecological safety of landscape-territorial complexes / Proceedings of the seventeenth scientific and technical conference "Security Systems-2008". October 30, 2008. - Moscow: Academy of the State Fire Service of the EMERCOM of Russia, 2008. - Pp. 96-102.
4. Minaev V. A., Faddeev A. Geoecological risk Assessments. Modeling of tourist and recreational territories safety - M.: Finance and statistics, INFRA-M, 2009. - 370 p.
5. Abramova A.V., Bondar K. M., Danilov R. M., Minaev V. A.., Pavlova S. A., Popov A. N., Faddeev A. O. Modeling of geodynamic risks in emergency situations: monograph / edited by K. M. Bondar, V. A. Minaev, A. O. Faddeev. - Khabarovsk: Far Eastern Law Institute of the Internal Affairs Ministry of Russia, 2014. - 124 p.
6. Minaev V. A., Faddeev A. O., Kuzmenko N. A. Modeling and assessment of geodynamic risks. - M.: "RTSoft" - "Kosmoskop", 2017. - 256 p.
7. Minaev V. A., Topolsky N. G., Faddeev A. O., Bondar K. M., Mokshantsev A.V. Geodynamic risks and construction. Mathematical models. - M.: Academy of the State Fire Service of the EMERCOM of Russia, 2017. - 208 p.
8. Shoigu S. K., Vladimirov V. A., Vorobyov Yu. L. and others. Safety of Russia. Legal, socio-economic and scientific and technical aspects. Protection of the population and territories from emergency situations of natural and technogenic character. - M.: Znanie, 1999. - 162 p.
9. Akimov V. A., Novikov V. D., Radaev N. N. Natural and technogenic emergencies: dangers, threats, risks. - M.: Delovoy Express, 2001. - 344 p.
10. Burkov V. N., Graziansky E. V., Dzyubko S. I., Shchepkin A.V. Models and mechanisms of safety management. - M.: SINTEG Publishing house, 2001. - 160 p.
11. Arnold V. I. Ordinary differential equations. - M.: MCSMA, 2012. - 344 p.
12. Agafonov S. A., Muratova T. V. Ordinary differential equations. - M.: Academia, 2018. - 352 p.
13. Kamke E. Handbook of ordinary differential equations. - Moscow: Nauka, 1971. - 576 p.
14. Demidovich B. P., Modenov V. P. Differential equations. - SPb.: LAN, 2006. - 288 p.
